Saturday, January 11, 2014

Schedule for Week of January 12th

by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2014 11:18:00 AM

The key reports this week are retail sales and housing starts for December.

For manufacturing, Industrial Production for December, and the NY Fed (Empire State), and Philly Fed January surveys will be released this week. 

For prices, CPI will be released on Thursday.

----- Monday, January 13th -----

2:00 PM ET: the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for December. The CBO estimates that the Treasury ran a surplus of $44 billion in December.
----- Tuesday, January 14th -----

7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December.

Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for December will be released.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.7% from November 2012.

The consensus is for retail sales to be unchanged in December, and to increase 0.4% ex-autos.

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for November.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.

----- Wednesday, January 15th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index for the previous two weeks.

8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in producer prices (and 0.1% increase in core PPI).

8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of 3.3, up from 1.0 in December (above zero is expansion).

2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, January 16th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decline to 327 thousand from 330 thousand.

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI in December and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.

10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of 8.7, up from 7.0 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

10:00 AM ET: The January NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 57.5, down from 58.0 in December. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

----- Friday, January 17th -----

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts8:30 AM: Housing Starts for December.

Total housing starts were at 1.09 million (SAAR) in November. Single family starts were at 727 thousand SAAR in November.

The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 985 thousand (SAAR) in December.

Industrial Production 9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.1%.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for January). The consensus is for a reading of 83.5, up from 82.5 in December.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey 10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in October to 3.925 million from 3.883 million in September.  The number of job openings (yellow) is up 7.7% year-over-year compared to October 2012 and openings are at the highest level since early 2008.

Quits increase in October and are up about 14.7% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").  This is the highest level for quits since 2008.