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Thursday, January 16, 2014

NAHB: Builder Confidence declines to 56 in January

by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2014 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 56 in January, down from 57 in December. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Slips One Notch in January

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes fell one point to 56 in January from a revised December reading of 57 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.
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All three HMI components declined in January. The index gauging current sales conditions edged one point lower to 62, while the index gauging expectations for future sales fell two points to 60. The index gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell three points to 40.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast and West each rose four points to 42 and 63, respectively, while the South held steady at 56. The Midwest fell a single point to 58.
emphasis added
HMI and Starts Correlation Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.
“Rising home prices, historically low mortgage rates and significant pent-up demand will drive a continuing, gradual recovery in the year ahead,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.