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Wednesday, January 08, 2014

Las Vegas Real Estate in December: Year-over-year Non-contingent Inventory up 78.6%

by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2014 05:26:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR reports home prices rose in December, up 24 percent in 2013

GLVAR said the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in December was 2,915, up from 2,694 in November, but down from 3,624 in December 2012....
...
GLVAR has been tracking fewer foreclosures and short sales – which occur when a lender agrees to sell a home for less than what the borrower owes on the mortgage. In December, 20.7 percent of all existing local home sales were short sales, down from 21 percent in November. Another 8.5 percent of all December sales were bank-owned properties, up from 7 percent in November.

Of the 40,242 existing residential properties sold in Southern Nevada during 2013, GLVAR reported that 62 percent were traditional sales. That’s a big jump from 2012, when only 37 percent of all 44,902 sales that year were traditional.

In December, GLVAR reported that 44.4 percent of all existing local homes sold were purchased with cash. That’s up from 43.7 in November but down from a peak of 59.5 percent set in February 2013. ...
The total number of properties listed for sale on GLVAR’s Multiple Listing Service decreased in December, with 13,303 single-family homes listed for sale at the end of the month. That’s down 6.6 percent from 14,240 single-family homes listed for sale at the end of November and down 8.9 percent from one year ago. GLVAR reported a total of 2,903 condos and townhomes listed for sale on its MLS in December, down 19.9 percent from 3,624 listed in November and down 16.5 percent from one year ago.

GLVAR also reported fewer available homes listed for sale without any sort of pending or contingent offer. By the end of December, GLVAR reported 6,587 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s down 3.6 percent from 6,830 such homes listed in November, but still up 78.6 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added
There are several key trends that we've been following:

1) Sales were up in December, but down about 19.6% year-over-year.

2) Conventional sales are up solidly year-over-year.  In December 2012, only 44.7% of all sales were conventional.  This year, in December 2013, 70.8% were conventional.  That is an increase in conventional sales of about 27% year-over-year.

3) The percent of cash sales is declining (investor buying appears to be declining).

4) and most interesting right now is that non-contingent inventory (year-over-year) is now increasing rapidly.  Non-contingent inventory is up 78.6% year-over-year!

Inventory has clearly bottomed in Las Vegas (A major theme for housing last year).  And fewer distressed sales and more inventory means price increases will slow.