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Thursday, January 30, 2014

Friday: Personal Income, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment,

by Calculated Risk on 1/30/2014 08:43:00 PM

Jed Kolko, writing at Economix, explains why the "headship rate" is more important than the homeownership rate: Why the Homeownership Rate Is Misleading

At this stage of the housing recovery, the falling homeownership rate turns out to be misleading. In fact, for young adults, who were hit especially hard in the recession and housing crisis, the decline in their homeownership rate might paradoxically be a sign of improvement.
When the homeownership rate steers us wrong, the “headship rate” ... can come to the rescue. It’s the percent of adults who head a household. Put another way, it is the ratio of households to adults. If there are 200 million adults living in 100 million households, the headship rate is 50 percent. A higher headship rate means fewer adults, on average, per household. Over the longer term, demographics explain shifts in the headship rate (and in labor force participation, for that matter). An aging population, for instance, typically increases the headship rate because older adults are more likely to head their household than younger adults are because many young adults live in their parents’ home or with housemates.
In fact, the headship rate is the key to how much the housing recovery contributes to economic growth. The headship rate and the population determine the total number of households, so a rise in the headship rate means more new households, all else equal.
Headship is poised to increase. Young adults still living with their parents won’t do so forever, and the Current Population Survey headship rate in 2013 – even with its recent rise — is still below its 20-year average. That will prompt more new construction.
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

• At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for an increase to 59.5, up from 59.1 in December.

• At 9:55 AM, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for January). The consensus is for a reading of 81.0, up from the preliminary reading of 80.4, and down from the December reading of 82.5.

• At 10:00 AM ET, Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to report on the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, this report doesn't track with other measures (like the decennial Census and the ACS).