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Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 13.7% year-over-year in November

by Calculated Risk on 1/28/2014 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3 month average of September, October and November prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Winter Shows No Signs of Cooling in Home Prices According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through November 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... showed that the 10-City and 20-City Composites increased 13.8% and 13.7% year-over-year. Dallas posted its highest annual return of 9.9% since its inception in 2000. Chicago also stood out with an annual rate of 11.0%, its highest since December 1988.

For the month of November, the two Composites declined 0.1%. After nine consecutive months of gains, this marks the first decrease since November 2012. Nine out of 20 cities recorded positive monthly returns ...

“November was a good month for home prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Despite the slight decline, the 10-City and 20-City Composites showed their best November performance since 2005. Prices typically weaken as we move closer to the winter. Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Phoenix stand out as they have posted 20 or more consecutive monthly gains.

“Beginning June 2012, we saw a steady rise in year-over-year increases. November continued that trend with another strong month although the rate of increase slowed. Looking at the year-over-year returns, the Sun Belt continues to push ahead with Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco and Tampa taking eight of the top nine spots. Detroit continues to recover but remains the only city with prices below its 2000 level."
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 20.8% from the peak, and up 0.9% in November (SA). The Composite 10 is up 20.1% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 19.9% from the peak, and up 0.9% (SA) in November. The Composite 20 is up 20.8% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 13.9% compared to November 2012.

The Composite 20 SA is up 13.7% compared to November 2012.

Prices increased (SA) in 20 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in November seasonally adjusted.  (Prices increased in 9 of the 20 cities NSA) Prices in Las Vegas are off 45.8% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs (SA).

This was at the consensus forecast for a 13.7% YoY increase. I'll have more on prices later.