by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2013 07:50:00 PM

From Cardiff Garcia at FT Alphaville: ISM vs the hard data

Two recent notes emphasise that the impressive recent ISM manufacturing readings in the US are probably as much about expectations of future performance as about what has already happened.
...
Tom Porcelli of RBC Capital Markets highlights the point that ISM is normally a leading indicator for the hard data:

ISM new orders has historically led the 3-month run rate of capex shipments by about one full quarter. Bottom line: the ISM data continue to flag an acceleration in capex growth near term.

Another hint that economic growth will increase in 2014.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 185,000 payroll jobs added in November, up from 130,000 in October.

• At 8:30 AM, the Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to decrease to $40.2 billion in October from $41.8 billion in September.

• At 10:00 AM, the New Home Sales for September and October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 425 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in October from 421 thousand in August.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for a reading of 55.5, up from 55.4 in October. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Trulia Price Rent Monitors for November. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

• At 2:00 PM. the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.