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Saturday, December 14, 2013

Schedule for Week of December 15th

by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2013 11:45:00 AM

The key event this week will be the FOMC statement and press conference on Wednesday. It is possible that the FOMC will start to reduce the monthly purchases of assets (aka "taper QE3"). I'll post a preview soon.

There are three key housing reports that will be released this week, housing starts for September, October, and November on Wednesday, homebuilder confidence survey on Tuesday, and existing home sales on Thursday.

For manufacturing, Industrial Production for November, and the NY Fed (Empire State), Philly Fed, and Kansas City Fed December surveys will be released this week.   For prices, CPI will be released on Tuesday.

----- Monday, December 16th -----

8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 4.5, up from -2.2 in November (above zero is expansion).

Industrial Production 9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for November.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.4%.

----- Tuesday, December 17th -----

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for November. The consensus is for no change in CPI in November and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.

10:00 AM ET: The December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 55, up from 54.0 in November. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

----- Wednesday, December 18th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts8:30 AM: Housing Starts for September, October and November.

Total housing starts were at 891 thousand (SAAR) in August. Single family starts were at 628 thousand SAAR in August.

The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 952 thousand (SAAR) in November.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement.  It is possible the FOMC will start to reduce QE purchases following this meeting.

2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

2:30 PM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, December 19th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 337 thousand from 368 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 10.0, up from 6.5 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

Existing Home Sales10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The consensus is for sales of 5.02 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in October were at a 5.12 million SAAR.

As always, a key will be inventory of homes for sale.

----- Friday, December 20th -----

8:30 AM: Q3 GDP (third estimate). This is the third estimate of Q3 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.6% annualized in Q3, unchanged from the second estimate.

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for November 2013

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.