In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 46 states in November

by Calculated Risk on 12/24/2013 02:48:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for November 2013. In the past month, the indexes increased in 46 states, decreased in two states (Alaska and Ohio), and remained stable in two (New Hampshire and Washington), for a one-month diffusion index of 88. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 46 states, decreased in three, and remained stable in one for a three-month diffusion index of 86.
Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityClick on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In November, 48 states had increasing activity(including minor increases). This measure has been and up down over the last few years ...

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and all green at times during the recovery.

There are a few states with three month declining activity, but most of the map is green - and I expect the map to be all green soon.