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Saturday, November 02, 2013

Schedule for Week of November 3rd

by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2013 11:06:00 AM

The key reports this week are Q3 GDP on Thursday, and the October employment report on Friday. 

Other key reports include the ISM service index on Tuesday, and the October Personal Income and Outlays report on Friday.

The Fed's October Senior Loan Officer Survey will be released on Monday.

----- Monday, November 4th -----

Early: The LPS September Mortgage Monitor report. This is a monthly report of mortgage delinquencies and other mortgage data.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for both August and September. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in August orders, and a 1.7% increase in September orders.

2:00 PM ET: The October 2013 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve.  This might show some slight loosening in lending standards.

----- Tuesday, November 5th-----

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 54.5, up slightly from 54.4 in September. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

10:00 AM: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for October. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

10:00 AM: Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to report on the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, this report doesn't track with other measures (like the decennial Census and the ACS).

----- Wednesday, November 6th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for September. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in this index.

----- Thursday, November 7th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 335 thousand from 340 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Q3 GDP (advance estimate). This is the advance estimate of Q3 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.0% annualized in Q3.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for September from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $12.0 billion in September.

----- Friday, November 8th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for October. The consensus is for an increase of 120,000 non-farm payroll jobs in October, down from the 148,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase to 7.3% in October, although the rate could spike higher to 7.4% or 7.5% due to the government shutdown based on the BLS method.  Any sharp increase in the unemployment rate due to the shutdown should be reversed in the November report.

The following graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through September.

Percent Job Losses During RecessionsThe economy has added 7.6 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (7.0 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).

There are still 1.3 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007.

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for October. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for November). The consensus is for a reading of 75.0, up from 73.2 in October.