by Calculated Risk on 11/12/2013 09:22:00 AM
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Chicago Fed: "Economic activity slightly improved in September"
The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Index shows economic activity slightly improved in September
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.14 in September from +0.13 in August.This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.03 in September from –0.15 in August, marking its seventh consecutive reading below zero. September’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
emphasis added

This suggests economic activity was slightly below the historical trend in September (using the three-month average).
According to the Chicago Fed:
What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.