Friday, October 25, 2013

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Stronger Sales in October Despite Government Shutdown

by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2013 11:19:00 AM

Note: The automakers will report October vehicle sales Friday, Nov 1st. The consensus is for the sales rate to increase to a 15.5 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in October from 15.2 million in September.

Here are a few forecasts:

From Kelley Blue Book: October New-Car Sales Expected To Jump 12 Percent, According To Kelley Blue Book

In October, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,220,000 units, up 11.7 percent from October 2012 and up 7.4 percent from September 2013.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for October 2013 is estimated to be 15.4 million, up from 14.3 million in October 2012 and up from 15.2 million in September 2013.
From JD Power: Government Shutdown Curbs New-Vehicle Sales on East Coast
New car- and light-truck sales in the Atlantic Coastal region, which had the highest concentration of employees affected by the October 1-16 shutdown, declined the most among geographic regions analyzed, compared with the same period last year. However, demand for new vehicles bounced back when the shutdown ended, according to the J.D. Power update, which is based on new-vehicle sales transaction data collected during the first 17 selling days of the month.

October sales are projected to reach nearly 1.22 million units, up from 1.09 million unit sales in the same month of 2012. That's equal to a 15.4 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual selling rate, or SAAR, which is much stronger than last October's 14.2 million-unit pace. It's also slightly ahead of the selling pace in September 2013.
From Edmunds.com: October Auto Sales Keep Pace Despite Threat from Government Shutdown, Says Edmunds.com
Edmunds.com ... forecasts that 1,229,860 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in October for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.5 million. The projected sales will be an 8.2 percent increase from September 2013, and a 12.7 percent increase from October 2012.

"It looks like the government shutdown ended just in the nick of time," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "The week-by-week data suggests that consumers started to get jittery by the middle of the month. But with the government back to work, most lost sales should be made up in the latter half of the month, and the industry's momentum will continue the pace it enjoyed before the disruption in Washington."
It looks the government shutdown impacted sales early in the month - especially on the east coast - but sales recovered towards the end of the month.