Monday, October 21, 2013

Existing Home Sales in September: 5.29 million SAAR, Inventory up 1.8% Year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2013 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Down in September but Prices Rise

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 1.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.29 million in September from a downwardly revised 5.39 million in August, but are 10.7 percent above the 4.78 million-unit pace in September 2012.

Total housing inventory at the end of September was unchanged at 2.21 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 5.0-month supply at the current sales pace, compared with a 4.9-month supply in August. Unsold inventory is 1.8 percent above a year ago, when there was a 5.4-month supply
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in September 2013 (5.29 million SAAR) were 1.9% lower than last month, and were 10.7% above the September 2012 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory was unchanged at 2.21 million in September.   Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually increases from the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory increased 1.8% year-over-year in September compared to September 2012. This is the first year-over-year increase since early 2011 and indicates inventory bottomed earlier this year.

Months of supply was at 5.0 months in September.

This was at expectations of sales of 5.30 million.  For existing home sales, the key number is inventory - and inventory is still low, but up year-over-year.    I'll have more later ...