Wednesday, September 04, 2013

Trade Deficit increased in July to $39.1 Billion

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2013 08:50:00 AM

The Department of Commerce reported this morning:

[T]otal July exports of $189.4 billion and imports of $228.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $39.1 billion, up from $34.5 billion in June, revised. July exports were $1.1 billion less than June exports of $190.5 billion. July imports were $3.5 billion more than June imports of $225.1 billion.
The trade deficit was close to the consensus forecast of $39.0 billion.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through July 2013.

U.S. Trade Exports Imports Click on graph for larger image.

Imports increased in July, and exports decreased.  

Exports are 14% above the pre-recession peak and up 3% compared to July 2012; imports are 1% below the pre-recession peak, and up 1% compared to July 2012 (mostly moving sideways).

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through July.

U.S. Trade Deficit The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Oil averaged $97.07 in July, up slightly from $96.93 in June, and up from $93.71 in July 2012. 

The trade deficit with the euro area was $11.0 billion in July, up slightly from $10.8 billion in July 2012.

The trade deficit with China increased to $30.1 billion in July, up from $29.4 billion in July 2012.  Most of the trade deficit is related to China and oil. And most of the recent improvement in the trade deficit is related to a decline in the volume of imported petroleum.