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Wednesday, September 04, 2013

Thursday: ADP Employment, Unemployment Claims, ISM Service Index

by Calculated Risk on 9/04/2013 07:36:00 PM

Small business employment gains have been weak for the last few years, and it appears small business employment was slightly negative in August ... but the outlook is improving.

From NFIB: Summer Winds Down; Job Growth Does Not Wind Up

Overall, owners reported a decline in employment averaging 0.3 workers per firm. ... Rosier skies appear ahead, it seems, as plan for future job creation rose a very large 7 points, netting sixteen percent of owners with plans to increase total employment. This is the best report since January 2007 and historically a very strong reading. ... If we assume this increase is not a fluke, it signals a substantial resumption of hiring in the coming months.
From Intuit: Small Business Employment Remained Flat in August
“The slight drop of one-hundredth of 1 percent in August employment equates to about 1,300 jobs lost, which means employment was essentially flat for the month. This is the second month that small business recovery has been flat or falling,” said Susan Woodward, the economist who worked with Intuit to create the indexes.
• 8:15 AM ET, the ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 177,000 payroll jobs added in August, down from 200,000 in July.

• At 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 330 thousand from 331 thousand last week.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for a reading of 55.0, down from 56.0 in July. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for July. The consensus is for a 3.4% decrease in orders.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Trulia Price Rent Monitors for August. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.