Monday, September 16, 2013

FNC: House prices increased 3.9% year-over-year in July

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2013 11:47:00 AM

In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA and LPS, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.

From FNC: FNC Index: Home Prices Continue to Rise, Up 0.7% in July

The latest FNC Residential Price Index™ (RPI) shows that U.S. home prices continue to climb higher, rising 0.7% in July. The index is reaching a three-year high as the housing recovery continues. The rapid declines in foreclosure sales and new foreclosure filings have diminished the impact of distressed properties on home prices. ...As of July, foreclosure sales nationwide are approaching the pre-crisis levels. Foreclosure sales accounted for 12.2% of total home sales, down from 17.3% a year ago.

Based on recorded sales of non-distressed properties (existing and new homes) in the 100 largest metropolitan areas, the FNC 100-MSA composite index shows that July home prices increased from the previous month at a seasonally unadjusted rate of 0.7%. On a year-over-year basis, home prices were up a modest 3.9% from a year ago. The two narrower indices exhibit similar month-over-month and year-over-year trends.
...
FNC’s RPI is the mortgage industry’s first hedonic price index built on a comprehensive database that blends public records of residential sales prices with real-time appraisals of property and neighborhood attributes. As a gauge of underlying home values, the RPI excludes sales of foreclosed homes, which are frequently sold with large price discounts, reflecting poor property conditions.
emphasis added
The 100-MSA composite was up 3.9% compared to July 2012 (about the same YoY change as in June). The FNC index turned positive on a year-over-year basis in July, 2012.

FNC House Price IndexClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for the FNC Composite 10, 20, 30 and 100 indexes. 

Even with the recent increase, the FNC composite 100 index is still off 27.3% from the peak.

I expect all of the housing price indexes to start showing lower year-over-year price gains as price increases slow.