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Monday, September 09, 2013

CBO: Monthly Budget Review for August 2013

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2013 02:46:00 PM

From the Congressional Budget Office (CBO): Monthly Budget Review for August 2013

The federal government ran a budget deficit of roughly $750 billion for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2013, CBO estimates—a reduction of more than $400 billion from the shortfall recorded for the same period last year. Revenues have risen significantly, accounting for more than two-thirds of the decline in the deficit. The deficit for all of fiscal year 2013 is expected to be smaller than the 11-month figure, as revenues are likely to outpace outlays in September.
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Receipts for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2013 totaled $2,472 billion, CBO estimates—$284 billion more than receipts for the same period last year.

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Outlays for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2013 were $127 billion less than spending during the same period last year, CBO estimates.
The surplus in September should be around $100 billion ($75 billion in Sept 2012), putting the annual deficit close to $650 billion (very close to the most recent CBO estimate):
If the current laws that govern federal taxes and spending do not change, the budget deficit will shrink this year to $642 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates, the smallest shortfall since 2008. Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit this year—at 4.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—will be less than half as large as the shortfall in 2009, which was 10.1 percent of GDP.