Monday, August 12, 2013

Tuesday: Retail Sales

by Bill McBride on 8/12/2013 08:44:00 PM

On Sunday I posted the following animation of the U.S population distribution, by age, from 1900 through 2060. The population data and estimates are from the Census Bureau (actual through 2010 and projections through 2060).

There are many interesting points - the Depression baby bust, the baby boom and more. What jumps out at me are the improvements in health care. And also that the largest cohorts will all soon be under 40 (I suspect more and more emphasis will shift away from the Boomers to younger generations). Heck, in the last frame (2060), any remaining Boomers will be in those small (but growing) 95 to 99, and 100+ cohorts.

Some people are concerned about supporting those older Americans. But the ratio of total Americans in the prime working age (20 to 55) will be about the same in 2060 as in 1900. The mix of dependents will change (fewer young, more old), but having fewer infant and child deaths, and a longer healthier life, seem like huge positives to me! Also I expect the definition of the prime working age will expand to include more older workers - so the ratio of dependents to workers might actually decline.

The future is bright!

U.S. Births per Year
• At 7:30 AM ET, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July.

• At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for July will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.3% in July, and to increase 0.4% ex-autos.

• At 10:00 AM, the Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for June. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.