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Wednesday, August 07, 2013

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Q2 National Mortgage Delinquency Survey

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2013 09:48:00 PM

First, Josh Lehner of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis points out the sequester is having an impact on employment: The Sequester Impact

A common discussion in recent months and quarters has been the impact, or lack thereof, of the federal sequester. ...

First there is the federal workforce. Two direct impacts are seen in the data here: actual employment reductions and more part-time workers due to furloughs. Both of these items have direct labor market and economic impacts as they result in less wages and less jobs immediately. Employment cuts at the Department of Defense averaged 1,200 per month in 2012 yet that has accelerated to 2,500 in the 3 months since the sequester officially has been in place. Across other federal agencies (excluding hospitals and the postal service) the cuts have accelerated even further, from 1,600 in 2012 to 5,100 in recent months. ... [also there has been a] dramatic increase in part-time federal workers for economic reasons (i.e. furloughs).

In terms of the private sector, the impacts are a bit more hidden given that the government buys goods and services from all types of firms so isolating the impact can be difficult. ... The slowdown in employment in the military dependent industries begins in November 2012 and employment has stagnated since, even down a couple thousand yet no substantial job losses, at least not yet. However there has been a clear change in employment patterns in the industry since the threat of sequester became 100% real at the end of 2012.
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 336 thousand from 326 thousand last week.

• At 10:00 AM: the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 2nd Quarter 2013 National Delinquency Survey (NDS).

MBA Delinquency by PeriodClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due for Q1 2013.

Loans 30 days delinquent increased to 3.21% from 3.04% in Q4.  Delinquent loans in the 60 day bucket increased slightly to 1.17% in Q1, from 1.16% in Q4.  The 90 day bucket decreased slightly to 2.88% from 2.89%. This is still way above normal (around 0.8% would be normal according to the MBA).  The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased to 3.55% from 4.74% and was now at the lowest level since 2008.