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Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, CPI, Philly & NY Fed Mfg Surveys, Industrial Production, Builder Confidence

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2013 07:52:00 PM

First, here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. From CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Prices See Midyear Surge

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE PRICES SURGE IN SECOND QUARTER 2013: On the strength of improving market fundamentals, the two broadest measures of aggregate pricing for commercial properties within the CCRSI — the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index — continued their upward trend in June. The value-weighted index, which is influenced by larger transactions and generally tracks with high quality core real estate properties, gained 5.9% in the second quarter, its best quarterly showing since 2011. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted index, which is comprised of smaller, more numerous transactions representative of the lower end of the market, jumped by an impressive 9.1% in the second quarter, its strongest quarterly gain on record.
RETAIL TURNS IN STRONGEST PERFORMANCE OF MAJOR PROPERTY TYPES: Stronger consumer spending and a near dearth in new construction helped to bolster pricing gains for retail properties as reflected in the 16% gain in the CCRSI Retail Index over the past 12-month period ending in the second quarter, the strongest performance of the four major property types. Meanwhile, pricing in the Office Index advanced by 11.4%, while the Multifamily Index gained a more modest 11.1% year over year.
DISTRESS SALES CONTINUE TO ABATE: The percentage of commercial property selling at distressed prices dropped to just 13.6% in June 2013, down from nearly 24% one year earlier, the lowest level of distress recorded since the end of 2008. The long-term average for distress trading is less than 1% of total volume, so the recovery still has a ways to go, but the recent declines have helped to boost liquidity and pricing by giving lenders more confidence to do deals.
emphasis added
Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.

• At 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 330 thousand from 333 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Consumer Price Index for July. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI in July and for core CPI to increase 0.2%.

• Also at 8:30 AM: the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 10.0, up from 9.5 in July (above zero is expansion).

• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 77.9%.

• At 10:00 AM, the August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 57, the same as in July. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 15.8, down from 19.8 last month (above zero indicates expansion).