Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, Cities

by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2013 11:04:00 AM

Two key points:

• The Case-Shiller index released this morning was for June, and it is actually a 3 month of average prices in April, May and June. I think price increases have slowed recently based on agent reports (a combination of a little more inventory and higher mortgage rates), but this slowdown in price increases will not show up for several months in the Case-Shiller index because of the reporting lag and because of the three month average. I expect to see smaller year-over-year price increases going forward and some significant deceleration towards the end of the year. 

• It appears the Case-Shiller index is currently overstating price increases for most homeowners, both because of the handling of distressed sales and the weighting of some coastal areas.

I also think it is important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $275,000 today adjusted for inflation. 

Earlier: Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 12.1% year-over-year in June

Nominal House Prices

Nominal House PricesThe first graph shows the quarterly Case-Shiller National Index SA (through Q2 2013), and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA and CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through June) in nominal terms as reported.

In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is back to Q4 2003 levels (and also back up to Q4 2008), and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to April 2004 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to August 2004.

Real House Prices

Real House PricesThe second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.

In real terms, the National index is back to Q4 2000 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to November 2001, and the CoreLogic index back to March 2002.

In real terms, house prices are back to early '00s levels.

Price-to-Rent

In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value. Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price index and the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) from the BLS.

Price-to-Rent RatioHere is a similar graph using the Case-Shiller National, Composite 20 and CoreLogic House Price Indexes.

This graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0).

On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to Q4 2000 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to April 2002 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to December 2002.

In real terms - and as a price-to-rent ratio - prices are mostly back to early 2000 levels.

Nominal Prices: Cities relative to Jan 2000


Case-Shiller CitiesThe last graph shows the bubble peak, the post bubble minimum, and current nominal prices relative to January 2000 prices for all the Case-Shiller cities in nominal terms.

As an example, at the peak, prices in Phoenix were 127% above the January 2000 level. Then prices in Phoenix fell slightly below the January 2000 level, and are now up 36% above January 2000.  Two cities - Denver and Dallas - are at new highs (no other Case-Shiller Comp 20 city is close).  Detroit prices are still below the January 2000 level.