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Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Wednesday: Housing Starts, Bernanke

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2013 08:45:00 PM

Oops ... from Mort Zuckerman writing in the WSJ:

That brings us to a stunning fact about the jobless recovery: The measure of those adults who can work and have jobs, known as the civilian workforce-participation rate, is currently 63.5%—a drop of 2.2% since the recession ended. Such a decline amid a supposedly expanding economy has never happened after previous recessions. Another statistic that underscores why this is such a dysfunctional labor market is that the number of people leaving the workforce during this economic recovery has actually outpaced the number of people finding a new job by a factor of nearly three.
I guess Mr. Zuckerman hasn't been following the discussion of current demographic trends. A significant portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to baby boomers retiring and other demographic trends (like more younger Americans staying in school). 

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for their weekly mortgage applications survey. Expect a further decline in refinance activity.

• At 8:30 AM, the Census Bureau will release Housing Starts for June. The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 951 thousand (SAAR) in June from 914 thousand in May.

• At 10:00 AM, Testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book will be released. This is an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.