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Friday, July 05, 2013

June Employment Report: 195,000 Jobs, 7.6% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2013 08:52:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 195,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +149,000 to +199,000, and the change for May was revised from +175,000 to +195,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 70,000 higher than previously reported.
The headline number was above expectations of 161,000 payroll jobs added.  Employment for April and May were also revised higher.

Payroll jobs added per month Click on graph for larger image.

NOTE: This graph is ex-Census meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed to show the underlying payroll changes.

The second graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was unchanged in June at 7.6%.

unemployment rateThe unemployment rate is from the household report and the household report showed a sharp increase in employment, and that meant a lower unemployment rate.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate was increased to 63.5% in June (blue line) from 63.4% in May. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. 

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment ratesThe participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although a significant portion of the recent decline is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio increased in June to 58.7%  (black line). I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

Percent Job Losses During Recessions The fourth graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, compared to previous post WWII recessions. The dotted line is ex-Census hiring.

This shows the depth of the recent employment recession - worse than any other post-war recession - and the relatively slow recovery due to the lingering effects of the housing bust and financial crisis.

This was above expectations and was a solid report including the upward revisions to April and May.  I'll have much more later ...