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Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 12.2% year-over-year in May

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2013 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3 month average of March, April and May prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Prices Continue to Increase in May 2013 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through May 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... showed increases of 2.5% and 2.4% for the 10- and 20-City Composites in May versus April. Dallas and Denver reached record levels surpassing their pre-financial crisis peaks set in June 2007 and August 2006. ...

The 10- and 20-City Composites annual returns rose slightly from April to May as they posted the best year-over-year gains since March 2006. All 20 cities increased from May 2012 to May 2013 and from April 2013 to May 2013. ...

“Home prices continue to strengthen,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Two cities set new highs, surpassing their pre-crisis levels and five cities – Atlanta, Chicago, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle – posted monthly gains of over three percent, also a first time event. ... “The overall report points to some shifts among various markets: Washington DC is no longer the standout leader and the eastern Sunbelt cities, Miami and Tampa, are lagging behind their western counterparts.”

All 20 cities showed positive monthly returns for May. Ten cities – Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle and Tampa – showed acceleration. Chicago posted an impressive monthly rate of 3.7% in May; it was higher than in April by one percentage point. Miami and Seattle had their largest monthly gains since August 2005 and April 1990, respectively.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 24.8% from the peak, and up 1.1% in May (SA). The Composite 10 is up 14.0% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 24.0% from the peak, and up 1.0% (SA) in May. The Composite 20 is up 14.7% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 11.8% compared to May 2012.

The Composite 20 SA is up 12.2% compared to May 2012. This was the twelfth consecutive month with a year-over-year gain and this was the largest year-over-year gain for the Composite 20 index since 2006. 

Prices increased (SA) in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in May seasonally adjusted. Prices in Las Vegas are off 51.4% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs.

This was close to the consensus forecast for a 12.3% YoY increase. I'll have more on prices later.