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Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Thursday: Retail Sales, Weekly Unemployment Claims

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2013 07:26:00 PM

First, here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. From CoStar: Commercial Real Estate Prices Shake Off Effects of First Quarter Seasonal Slowdown with Strong Showing in April

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE PRICE RECOVERY REGAINED MOMENTUM IN APRIL: As the effects of the first quarter seasonal slowdown in investment activity subsided, commercial real estate prices advanced across the board in April 2013. The two broadest measures of aggregate pricing for commercial properties within the CCRSI—the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index—each posted solid monthly gains in April of 1.9% and 1.1%, respectively, which reflects improvement in market fundamentals across the major CRE property types. The two components of the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index (the Investment Grade and General Commercial indices) also made substantial gains in April 2013, signifying an extension of the recovery in commercial property pricing to more secondary property types and markets.
DISTRESS SALES FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2008: The percentage of commercial property selling at distressed prices tumbled to 13.2% in April 2013, 64% lower than the peak level observed in March 2011. This reduction in distressed deal volume has supported higher, more consistent pricing and enhanced market liquidity by giving buyers greater confidence to do deals.
emphasis added
Commercial Real Estate Prices Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from CoStar shows the Value-Weighted and Equal-Weighted indexes.  CoStar reported that the Value-Weighted index is up 40.9% from the bottom (showing the demand for higher end properties) and up 10.8% year-over-year. However the Equal-Weighted index is only up 8.0% from the bottom, and up 6.3% year-over-year.

Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.

Thursday economic releases:
• At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 350 thousand from 346 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for May will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.5% in May, and to increase 0.4% ex-autos.

• At 10:00 AM, the Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for April. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.