Wednesday, June 19, 2013

FOMC Projections and Press Conference

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2013 02:15:00 PM

Just a couple of months ago, several analysts argued that the Fed would start to taper QE purchases in June.  That was NEVER in the cards.  September is possible, but I still expect they will wait until December or early 2014 to start to taper.

The Fed is clearly missing on the low side of their inflation target.  If that continues, the next move will be to increase purchases!  James Bullard even argued "the Committee should signal more strongly its willingness to defend its inflation goal in light of recent low inflation readings".

Bernanke press conference here or watch below. 



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On the projections, GDP was revised down slightly, the unemployment rate was revised down, and inflation was revised down sharply for 2013. 

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP1201320142015
June 2013 Meeting Projections2.3 to 2.63.0 to 3.52.9 to 3.6
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections2.3 to 2.82.9 to 3.42.9 to 3.7
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections2.3 to 3.03.0 to 3.53.0 to 3.7
1 Projections of change in real GDP and in inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 7.6% in May. 

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate2201320142015
June 2013 Meeting Projections7.2 to 7.3 6.5 to 6.85.8 to 6.2
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections7.3 to 7.5 6.7 to 7.06.0 to 6.5
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections7.4 to 7.7 6.8 to 7.36.0 to 6.6
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The FOMC believes inflation will stay significantly below target.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation1201320142015
June 2013 Meeting Projections0.8 to 1.21.4 to 2.01.6 to 2.0
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections1.3 to 1.71.5 to 2.01.7 to 2.0
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections1.3 to 2.01.5 to 2.01.7 to 2.0

Here is core inflation:

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core Inflation1201320142015
June 2013 Meeting Projections1.2 to 1.31.5 to 1.81.7 to 2.0
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections1.5 to 1.61.7 to 2.01.8 to 2.0
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections1.6 to 1.91.6 to 2.01.8 to 2.1