In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Friday, June 14, 2013

Fed: Industrial Production unchanged in May

by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2013 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production was unchanged in May after having decreased 0.4 percent in April. In May, manufacturing production rose 0.1 percent after falling in each of the previous two months, and the output at mines increased 0.7 percent. The gains in manufacturing and mining were offset by a decrease of 1.8 percent in the output of utilities. At 98.7 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in May was 1.6 percent above its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry edged down 0.1 percentage point to 77.6 percent, a rate 0.2 percentage point below its level of a year earlier and 2.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2012) average.
emphasis added
Capacity Utilization Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 10.7 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 77.6% is still 2.6 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production was essentially unchanged in May at 98.7 . This is 17.8% above the recession low, but still 2.1% below the pre-recession peak.

The monthly change for both Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were below expectations. The consensus was for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production in April, and for Capacity Utilization to increases to 77.9%. Most of the weakness in industrial production was due to a sharp decline in the output of utilities.