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Tuesday, June 04, 2013

CoreLogic: House Prices up 12.1% Year-over-year in April

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2013 09:46:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for April. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for March. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Report Shows Home Prices Rise by 12.1 Percent Year Over Year in April

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 12.1 percent on a year-over-year basis in April 2013 compared to April 2012. This change represents the biggest year-over-year increase since February 2006 and the 14th consecutive monthly increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 3.2 percent in April 2013 compared to March 2013.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased on a year-over-year basis by 11.9 percent in April 2013 compared to April 2012. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 3 percent in April 2013 compared to March 2013. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that May 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 12.5 percent on a year-over-year basis from May 2012 and rise by 2.7 percent on a month-over-month basis from April 2013. Excluding distressed sales, May 2013 home prices are poised to rise 13.2 percent year over year from May 2012 and by 3.1 percent month over month from April 2013.
“House price growth continues to surprise to the upside with an impressive 12.1 percent gain year over year in April,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Increasing demand for new and existing homes, coupled with low inventory, has created a virtuous cycle for price gains, most clearly seen in the Western states with year-over-year gains of 20 percent or more.”
CoreLogic House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 3.2% in April, and is up 12.1% over the last year.  This index is not seasonally adjusted, and this is usually the strongest time of the year for price increases.

The index is off 22% from the peak - and is up 15.9% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012.

CoreLogic YoY House Price IndexThe second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for fourteen consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed early in 2012 on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).

This is the largest year-over-year increase since 2006.

This was another very strong month-to-month increase.  At some point more inventory will come on the market and slow the price increases.  Note: CoreLogic notes that prices are up year-over-year in all 50 states excluding distressed sales.