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Thursday, May 02, 2013

Friday: Employment Report

by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2013 07:07:00 PM

A couple more previews ...

From the Sudeep Reddy at the WSJ: What to Expect From the Jobs Report

UBS economists forecast payroll growth of 130,000 jobs in April but warn that it’s because of “technical oddities rather than fundamental weakening” in the labor market. The gap between the Labor Department’s March and April surveys — four weeks instead of five weeks — “has historically been associated with April payrolls about 60,000 below the surrounding trend,” they write.
From Forbes: April Jobs Report: Economy To Add Only 100K On Falling Consumption, Unemployment To Hit 7.5%, Nomura Says
The April jobs report promises to be another disappointing data point, according to Nomura, which expects a meager job gain of only 100,000 as consumer spending wanes and manufacturing activity slows.
Friday economic releases:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the Employment Report for April. The consensus is for an increase of 153,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April; the economy added 88,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 7.6% in April.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 54.0, down from 54.4 in March. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) report for March will be released. The consensus is for a 2.8% decrease in orders.