Monday, April 22, 2013

Tuesday: New Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2013 08:59:00 PM

Since the existing home sales report was released today, I didn't mention the weekly housing tracker inventory data this morning.

The Realtor (NAR) data is monthly and released with a lag (the data released today was for March).  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has provided me some weekly inventory data for the last several years. This is displayed on the graph below as a percentage change from the first week of the year (to normalize the data).

In 2010 (blue), inventory mostly followed the normal seasonal pattern, however in 2011 and 2012, there was only a small increase in inventory early in the year, followed by a sharp decline for the rest of the year.

So far - through April 22nd - inventory is increasing much faster than in 2011 and 2012.

Exsiting Home Sales Weekly dataClick on graph for larger image.

Note: the data is a little weird for early 2011 (spikes down briefly).

In 2010, inventory was up 15% by the end of March, and close to 20% by the end of April.

For 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased about 5% at the peak and then declined for the remainder of the year.

So far in 2013, inventory is up 11.8% (well above the peak percentage increase for 2011 and 2012).  It is still possible that inventory could bottom this year - it will probably be close - but right now I expect inventory to bottom in early 2014.

Tuesday economic releases:
• Early: the LPS 'First Look' at March mortgage performance will be released. This data shows the delinquency and in foreclosure rates for residential mortgages.

• At 9:00 AM ET, the FHFA House Price Index for February 2013 will be released. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index that deserves more attention. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase.

• Also at 9:00 AM, the Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index Flash for April. The consensus is for a decrease to 54.2 from 54.9 in March.

• At 10:00 AM, the Census Bureau will release New Home Sales for March. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 419 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in March from 411 thousand in February.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April. The consensus is for a reading of 3.0 for this survey, unchanged from March (Above zero is expansion).