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Sunday, April 21, 2013

Monday: Existing Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2013 08:17:00 PM

A major revision to GDP is coming this summer, from Robin Harding at the Financial Times: Data shift to lift US economy 3%

The US economy will officially become 3 per cent bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film royalties and spending on research and development.
This is a technical change on what is included in GDP, as an example R&D has been considered an expense and will now be included as an investment and capitalized. Another change will be that underfunded pension plans will be included as a liability.  According to the article, the BEA doesn't expect any "large changes in trends or cycles".

Monday economic releases:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 5.03 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in February were at a 4.98 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler is estimating the NAR will report a March sales rate of 4.89 million.

Summary for Week Ending April 19th
Schedule for Week of April 21st

The Japanese market opened up sharply with the Nikkei up 1.7%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are up slightly and Dow futures are up 16 (fair value).

Oil prices are down over the last week with WTI futures at $88.01 per barrel and Brent at $99.44 per barrel.

According to, gasoline prices are down about 24 cents over the last 7 weeks to $3.50 per gallon. Using the calculator from Professor Hamilton, and the current price of Brent crude oil, the national average should be around $3.32 per gallon. That is about 18 cents below the current level according to, so I expect gasoline prices to fall further.