Sunday, April 14, 2013

Monday: Empire State Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Confidence

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2013 10:03:00 PM

A depressing summary of the European situation from Professor Tim Duy: When Can We All Admit the Euro is an Economic Failure?. Duy concludes:

With no depreciation for crisis-stricken economies, no fiscal stimulus, and tight credit conditions through half of Europe as banking consolidates within national boundaries, what exactly is the road forward for Europe? I just don't see it.

Bottom Line: How high does unemployment need to rise, how much output needs to be lost, how much poverty must be endured before European policymakers realize that the framework supporting the Euro politcally is an economic failure?
It doesn't help that European policymakers have been consistently wrong and seem delusional about what they have accomplished ("Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant").

Monday economic releases:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the NY Fed will release the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 7.5, down from 9.2 in March (above zero is expansion).

• At 10:00 AM, the NAHB will release the April homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 45, up from 44 in March. Although this index has increased sharply in 2012, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Summary for Week Ending April 12th
Schedule for Week of April 14th

The Asian markets are red tonight with the Nikkei down 0.9%, but the Shanghai composite off 0.25%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are down 3 and Dow futures are down 3 (fair value).

Oil prices are down over the last week with WTI futures at $90.57 per barrel and Brent at $102.80 per barrel. According to, gasoline prices are down about 22 cents over the last 6 weeks to $3.52 per gallon.