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Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Lawler: Updated Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in March

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2013 04:33:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below of short sales and foreclosures for several selected cities in March. 

Look at the right two columns in the table below (Total "Distressed" Share for March 2013 compared to March 2012). In every area that has reported distressed sales so far, the share of distressed sales is down year-over-year - and down significantly in many areas. 

This is worth repeating: Imagine that the number of total existing home sales doesn't change or even declines over the next year - some people would argue that is "bad" news and the housing market isn't recovering. But also imagine that the share of distressed sales declines sharply, and conventional sales increase significantly. That would be a positive sign - and that is what is now happening.

I think the two keys for existing housing are active inventory and the number of conventional sales.

 Short Sales ShareForeclosure Sales ShareTotal "Distressed" Share
Las Vegas33.3%26.6%11.2%40.7%44.5%67.3%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)11.4%13.2%10.7%14.7%22.1%27.9%
Hampton Roads       28.4%33.5%
Northeast Florida       40.0%43.2%
Chicago       43.0%46.0%
Charlotte       12.3%15.8%
Metro Detroit   35.4%46.6%  
Memphis*    26.8%32.7%  
*share of existing home sales, based on property records