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Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to increase 8.0% Year-over-year for January

by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2013 12:37:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for January will be released Tuesday, March 26th. Zillow has started forecasting the Case-Shiller almost a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

Zillow Forecast: January Case-Shiller Composite-20 Will Be Up 8% Year-Over-Year

[W]e predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (January 2013) will show that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) increased 8.0 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) increased 7.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from December to January will be 0.8 percent for both the 20-City Composite and the 10-City Composite Home Price Indices (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for January will not be released until Tuesday, March 26th.
To forecast the Case-Shiller indices we use past data from Case-Shiller, as well as the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is available more than a month in advance of Case-Shiller numbers, paired with foreclosure resale numbers, which we also have available more than a month prior to Case-Shiller numbers. Together, these data points enable us to reliably forecast the Case-Shiller 10-City and 20-City Composite indices. The ZHVI does not include foreclosure resales and shows home values for January 2013 up 6.2 percent from year-ago levels. We expect home value appreciation to moderate in 2013, rising only 3.3 percent from January 2013 to January 2014. Further details on our forecast can be found here and Zillow’s full January 2013 report can be found here.
The following table shows the Zillow forecast for January.

Zillow January Forecast for Case-Shiller Index
 Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
Case Shiller
(year ago)
Jan 2012147.99149.47135.22136.75
(last month)
Dec 2012158.49158.73145.95146.26
Zillow ForecastYoY7.2%7.2%8.0%8.0%
Zillow Forecasts1 158.6160.1146.0147.6
Current Post Bubble Low 146.46149.47134.07136.75
Date of Post Bubble Low Mar-12Jan-12Mar-12Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low 8.3%7.1%8.9%7.9%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts