by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2013 03:58:00 PM

Based on an estimate from AutoData Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 15.38 million SAAR in February. That is up 7% from February 2012, and up about 1% from the sales rate last month.

This was above the consensus forecast of 15.2 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for February (red, light vehicle sales of 15.38 million SAAR from AutoData).

Click on graph for larger image.

This is a solid start to the new year.    After three consecutive years of double digit auto sales growth, the growth rate will probably slow in 2013 - but this will still be another positive year for the auto industry.

Even if sales average the January / February rate all year, Total sales would be up about 6% from 2012.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

This shows the huge collapse in sales in the 2007 recession, and that sales have increased significantly from the bottom.

This is another positive sign for the economy going forward.