Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Forecasts: Solid Vehicle Sales in March

by Calculated Risk on 3/26/2013 06:41:00 PM

Note: The automakers will report March vehicle sales this coming Monday, April 1st. Here are a few forecasts:

From Reuters: US industry March auto sales tracking above 15 mln -Toyota exec

"So far, this month of March looks to be very good for all manufacturers," [Bob Carter, Toyota's senior vice president for U.S. auto operations] told industry executives at a conference ahead of the New York auto show. He said industry sales are tracking up 6.6 percent in March, with an annual rate of 15.2 million to 15.3 million vehicles.
From TrueCar: March 2013 New Car Sales Expected to Be Up Almost Five Percent According to TrueCar; March 2013 SAAR at 15.42M, Highest March SAAR Since 2007
The March 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 15.42 million new car sales ... up from 14.1 million in March 2012.
From Kelley Blue Book: March New-Car Sales To Hit Highest Monthly Total Since August 2007 According To Kelley Blue Book
New-car sales will remain steady at a 15.2 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in March.
And from Reuters: U.S. auto sales could rise 8 pct in March -research firms
Sales of new cars and trucks in March are expected to rise to 1,465,100 vehicles, while the annual sales pace is forecast to hit 15.3 million vehicles, J.D. Power and LMC said in a joint report released on Thursday. Since November, the annual rate has ranged from 15.3 million to 15.5 million.
It appears auto sales were solid in March, and this suggests decent consumer spending growth in Q1.

Note: Most forecasts were for auto sales growth to slow in 2013 to around 4% growth or 15.0 million units. Based on the first few months, it appears sales will be stronger than expected this year.

Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 8.1% year-over-year in January
Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, City Prices relative to 2000
New Home Sales at 411,000 SAAR in February
A few comments on New Home Sales