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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Thursday: ADP Employment, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Auto Sales, ISM Mfg

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2012 09:10:00 PM

Here are the winners for the October economic question contest:

1st: Don Durito

2nd tie: Pat MacAuley, Vijay Kumar, Christopher Brandow, Daniel Brawdy and 2 OpenID Users.

Congratulations all!

• At 8:15 AM: ADP will release their Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 155,000 payroll jobs added in October. However this is the first report using a new methodology, and the consensus probably doesn't reflect that change. I expect something significantly lower than the "consensus". This doesn't mean the labor market is weaker than originally thought - just that the ADP methodology has been changed.

• At 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 365 thousand from 369 thousand.  Note: There will probably some increase in weekly unemployment claims over the next few weeks related to Hurricane Sandy.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Productivity and Costs for Q3. The consensus is for a 1.3% increase in unit labor costs.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Manufacturing Index for October will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 51.0, down from 51.5 in September. (above 50 is expansion).

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Census Bureau will released the Construction Spending report for September. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in construction spending.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for October. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 15.0 million SAAR in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

Here are the first four questions for the November economic prediction contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).