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Thursday, October 11, 2012

Redfin: House prices up 5% Year-over-year in September

by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2012 02:35:00 PM

From Redfin: Home Prices Dip Slightly from August to September, Still Up 5% from 2011 in Redfin Real-Time Home Price Tracker

Redfin today released its Real-Time Home Price Tracker for September 2012, showing an annual price gain of 5 percent across 19 major U.S. markets. From August to September, prices declined just 0.8% percent, which is a smaller decline than is typical at this time of year.
Inventory still low: The number of homes for sale declined 29.3% from September 2011 to September 2012, and by 4.3% since August.

Homes selling quickly: The percentage of listings that sold within 14 days of their debut held steady in September at 27%.

Home sales up year-over-year, down since August: Home sales increased 4% from last year, and fell 17% since August—a typical seasonal decline.

"September is usually the month that real estate goes on sale, like Christmas toys in January," said Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman. "Whatever didn't sell in the summer gets marked down for a September closing. This September, we saw only a modest decline in prices, with inventory still dropping and demand fairly steady. In the most volatile markets, including Southern California, Phoenix and Las Vegas, we continued to see big price gains."
This house price index is based on prices per sq ft. This is a reminder that prices will decline month-to-month in the fall and winter on the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) indexes - and it will be important to watch the year-over-year change. Right now I'm guessing the CoreLogic index will report negative month-to-month price changes for August or September, and Case-Shiller for September or October.

The reported 29.3% year-over-year decrease in inventory is similar to other sources and is a key driver for the year-over-year price increase.