In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Monday, September 17, 2012

Tuesday: Homebuilder Confidence Survey

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2012 09:16:00 PM

First a re-mention: Michael Pettis wrote an interesting article about supply and demand for commodities: By 2015 hard commodity prices will have collapsed

On house prices, Redfin released their "real time" home price tracker today for August: Home Prices Hit Two-Year High in August, Up 5% From 2011

Following is a summary of key metrics across 19 major metropolitan markets:

• Home prices in August increased 4.9% year over year, and were flat month over month (+0.1%).
• The number of homes for sale declined 28.5% from August 2011 to August 2012, and by 4.5% since July.
Home prices will no doubt decline a bit into the winter (as they do every year) ... All signs point to continued modest year-over-year price gains through the end of the year, more or less in line with inflation in most markets.
The decline in inventory is a huge story. It is possible that the NAR will report on Wednesday that months-of-supply for existing homes declined to around 6.0 months for August. This will be the lowest months-of-supply for August since 2005. Last year, in August 2011, there were 8.2 months-of-supply.

On Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, 10:00 AM: The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 38, up from 37 in August. Although this index has been increasing lately, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.