Friday, September 14, 2012

Retail Sales increased 0.9% in August

by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2012 08:47:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.9% from July to August (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.7% from August 2011. This increase was largely due to higher gasoline prices. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $406.7 billion, an increase of 0.9 percent from the previous month and 4.7 percent (±0.7%) above August 2011. ... The June to July 2012 percent change was revised from 0.8 percent to 0.6 percent.
Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image.

Sales for July were revised down to a 0.6% increase (from 0.8% increase).

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 22.7% from the bottom, and now 7.3% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

Retail Sales since 2006The second graph shows the same data, but just since 2006 (to show the recent changes). This shows that much of the recent increase is due to gasoline.

Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 19.3% from the bottom, and now 7.2% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The third graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 4.9% on a YoY basis (4.7% for all retail sales). Retail sales ex-gasoline increased 0.3% in August.

Year-over-year change in Retail SalesThis was above the consensus forecast for retail sales of a 0.8% increase in August, and above (edit) the consensus for a 0.7% increase ex-auto.

All current retail sales graphs