Wednesday, August 01, 2012

Thursday: ECB Meeting, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Factory Orders

by Calculated Risk on 8/01/2012 09:36:00 PM

From Jon Hilsenrath and Kristina Peterson at the WSJ: Wary Fed Is Poised to Act

The Federal Reserve is heading toward launching a new round of stimulus to buck up the weak economy, but stopped short of doing so right away.

The decision to make what amounted to a conditional promise of action came Wednesday at the end of the central bank's two-day policy meeting. In an uncharacteristically strong statement, the Fed said it will "closely monitor" the economy and "will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions." Translation: The Fed will move if growth and employment don't pick up soon on their own.
The Fed has been saying "soon" for months.

On Thursday:
• At 7:45 AM ET, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce their decision on rates. The key is the after meeting press conference. From the FT Alphaville:
Any further policy action would be announced during Draghi’s subsequent press conference. To recap, the likeliest options seem to be: another rate cut (note that earlier time), a revived Securities Markets Programme, and then (getting quite a bit less likely) another LTRO, approval of an eventual banking license for the ESM, or a yield targeting framework for bond-buying.
• At 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 370 thousand from 353 thousand last week.

• At 10:00 AM, the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for May will be released. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in orders.

I'll also post an employment preview tomorrow too.