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Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes in July show weakness

by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2012 10:17:00 AM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for July 2012. In the past month, the indexes increased in 22 states, decreased in 17, and remained stable in 11, for a one-month diffusion index of 10. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 32 states, decreased in 14, and remained stable in four, for a three-month diffusion index of 36.
Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. From the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityClick on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In July, 30 states had increasing activity, down from 35 in June. The last three months have been weak following eight months of widespread growth geographically. The number of states with increasing activity is at the lowest level since January 2010.

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession.

And the map was all green just just a few months ago.

Now there are a number of red states again.