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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Wednesday: FOMC announcement, ISM Mfg, Auto Sales and much more

by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2012 09:38:00 PM

Wednesday will be a busy day with most of the focus on the FOMC announcement, auto sales and the ISM manufacturing index:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. Expect more refinancing activity and record low mortgage rates.

• At 8:15 AM, the ADP Employment Report for June will be released. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 120,000 payroll jobs added in June, down from the 176,000 reported last month.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Manufacturing Index for July will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 50.1, up from 49.7 in June. (below 50 is contraction).

• Also at 10:00 AM, construction spending for June will be released. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in construction spending.

• At 2:15 PM, the FOMC announcement will be released. Expectations range from doing nothing, to extending the period that the FOMC expects "exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate" through 2015, to launching QE3. The FOMC is under pressure with unemployment forecast to remain very high for years, and inflation below the target rate - and projected to remain below the target rate for several years.

• At around 4:00 PM, the SAAR rate for auto sales will be released. The automakers will report sales during the day, and light vehicle sales are expected to decrease to 14.0 million from 14.1 million in June SAAR.