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Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Thursday: ISM Service, ADP Employment, ECB, Unemployment Claims

by Calculated Risk on 7/04/2012 09:43:00 PM

Back to work ... there are several key economic reports that will be released on Thursday. Also the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut the benchmark interest rate from 1.0% to 0.75%.

• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This report will probably show record low mortgages rates.

• At 8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June will be released. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 95,000 payroll jobs added in June, down from the 133,000 reported in May.

• At 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to be unchanged at 386 thousand.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for June will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 53.0 from 53.7 in May. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

• Early: Reis is expected to release their Q2 Apartment vacancy report.

The Asian markets are mostly green tonight. The Nikkei is up slightly.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P 500 are down 3 and Dow futures are down 30.

Oil: WTI futures are up to $86.85 (this is down from $109.77 in February, but up last week) and Brent is up to $99.89 per barrel.

Professor Hamilton has a new post on gasoline prices: Update on U.S. gasoline prices

Two weeks ago, I commented on the tendency of U.S. retail gasoline prices to follow the price of Brent crude oil, anticipating on the basis of the price of Brent, then at $91.50, that we might expect to see average U.S. retail gasoline prices, then at $3.47, to fall an additional 35 cents/gallon. The gasoline price has since come down about 11 cents. But with Brent now surging back up near $100, this is about all we can expect.
See his post for several charts.