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Monday, July 30, 2012

More FOMC Preview

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2012 08:09:00 PM

Most of this article is about the ECB and there isn't anything new on the Fed, from Jon Hilsenrath and Brian Blackstone at the WSJ: Heat Rises on Central Banks

The two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting convenes Tuesday, following signs that Fed officials have become more willing to act to address disappointingly slow U.S. economic growth.
The Fed could unveil a new program for buying mortgage or government securities to bring down long-term interest rates, or take other actions to spur growth, or simply promise to do more later if necessary. Officials might wait until September, when they will formally update their economic forecasts, before deciding anything significant.
From Goldman Sachs analysts today:
Although a new Fed asset purchase program is a possibility in the near term if the data continue to disappoint, our central expectation is for a return to QE in December or early 2013.
We expect an extension of the current “exceptionally low…at least through late 2014” interest rate guidance to "mid 2015." Such a shift would roughly restore the forward guidance to the same three-year horizon as at the January FOMC meeting, when the "late 2014" formulation was first adopted. We would, however, regard this rate extension as a relatively modest step.