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Thursday, July 05, 2012

ADP: Private Employment increased 176,000 in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2012 08:20:00 AM

ADP reports:

According to today‟s ADP National Employment Report, employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose 176,000 from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis. Employment in the private, service-providing sector rose 160,000 in June, after rising a revised 137,000 in May.

According to Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, “The gain in private employment is strong enough to suggest that the national unemployment rate may have declined in June. Today‟s estimate, if reinforced by a comparable reading on employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics tomorrow, likely will ease concerns that the economy is heading into a downturn.”

Prakken added: “There seems little doubt that recent employment gains have been restrained by heightened uncertainty over the European financial crisis and by growing concerns about domestic fiscal policy. However, the acceleration of employment since April does lend credence to the argument that unseasonably warm weather boosted employment during the winter months, with a "payback" spread over April and May.”
This was way above the consensus forecast of an increase of 95,000 private sector jobs in June. The BLS reports on Friday, and the consensus is for an increase of 90,000 payroll jobs in June, on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis.

ADP hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report, but this suggests a stronger than consensus report.

Note - it was rate cutting day too: ECB cuts rates.

China cuts rates.

BOE expands QE.