Thursday, June 21, 2012

Misc: Philly Fed, Leading Indicators, FHFA House Price index increases 0.8%

by Calculated Risk on 6/21/2012 01:56:00 PM

Catching up ...

• From the Philly Fed: June 2012 Business Outlook Survey

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, fell from a reading of -5.8 in May to -16.6, its second consecutive negative reading ...
...
The current employment index increased 3 points this month [to 1.8]. Firms indicated fewer hours worked this month: the average workweek index decreased 14 points and posted its third consecutive negative reading.
ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through June. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through May.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys declined in May, and is at the lowest level since last summer.

• Also this morning, the Markit Flash PMI came in below expectations at 52.9% (slower expansion).

• The Conference Board leading indicators increased 0.3% in May:
"Economic data in general reflect a U.S. economy that is growing modestly, neither losing nor gaining momentum," said Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board, a private research group. However, he added that ongoing U.S. and international challenges are making economic strengthening "difficult."
• The FHFA house price index showed further gains in April: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.8 Percent in April
U.S. house prices rose 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from March to April, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. ... For the 12 months ending in April, U.S. prices rose 3.0 percent.