by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2012 10:02:00 AM
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
The MBA reported that 11.79 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q1 2012 (delinquencies seasonally adjusted). This is down from 11.96 percent in Q4 2011 and is the lowest level since 2008.
From the MBA: Delinquencies Decline in Latest MBA Mortgage Delinquency Survey
The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.40 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the first quarter of 2012, a decrease of 18 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2011, and a decrease of 92 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate decreased 121 basis points to 6.94 percent this quarter from 8.15 percent last quarter.Note: 7.40% (SA) and 4.39% equals 11.79%.
The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the fourth quarter was 0.96 percent, down three basis points from last quarter and down 12 basis points from one year ago. The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the first quarter was 4.39 percent, up one basis point from the fourth quarter and 13 basis points lower than one year ago. The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 7.44 percent, a decrease of 29 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 66 basis points from the first quarter of last year.
“Mortgage delinquencies normally fall during the first quarter of the year, but the declines we saw were even greater than the normal seasonal adjustments would predict, so delinquencies are clearly continuing to improve. Newer delinquencies, loans one payment past due as of March 31, are down to the lowest level since the middle of 2007, indicating fewer new problems we will need to deal with in the future. The percentage of loans three payments or more past due, the loans that represent the backlog of problems that still need to be handled, is down to the lowest level since the end of 2008. Foreclosure starts are at their lowest level since the end of 2007,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics.
"The problem continues to be the slow-moving judicial foreclosure systems in some of the largest states. While the rate of foreclosure starts is essentially the same in judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states, the percent of loans in the foreclosure process has reached another all-time high in the judicial states, 6.9 percent. In contrast, that rate has fallen to 2.8 percent in non-judicial states, the lowest since early 2009. As the foreclosure starts rate is essentially the same in both groups of states, that difference is due entirely to the systems some states have in place that effectively block timely resolution of non-performing loans and is not an indicator of the fundamental health of the housing market or the economy. In fact, hard-hit markets like Arizona that have moved through their foreclosure backlog quickly are seeing home price gains this spring."
I'll have more later after the conference call this morning.