Sunday, May 06, 2012

Exit Polls: Hollande Wins French Runoff, Greek vote split

by Calculated Risk on 5/06/2012 01:33:00 PM

Update: 2 PM ET from Le Monde: François Hollande élu président de la République

From the WSJ: Hollande Wins French Runoff, Early Polls Show

French Socialist candidate François Hollande won Sunday's presidential runoff ... according to estimates of preliminary results seen by The Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Sarkozy's defeat makes him the 11th euro-zone leader swept away in the sovereign-debt crisis.
The polls close at 2 PM ET, so this is just preliminary. Hollande is an experienced politician and will push for some growth initiatives as opposed to just austerity.

The polls have closed in Greece and preliminary results will be released soon. The Athens News has a live blog of the results. The big surprise - so far - is it looks like Syriza will finish 2nd with Pasok 3rd. Here are some exit poll numbers (any party with 3% or more of the vote will receive seats):
Public Issue for Skai

(min-max, in %)

New Democracy 20.5-24.5
Radical Left Coalition (Syriza) 14-18
Pasok 13-17
Communist Party 7-10.5
Independent Greeks 7-10
Democratic Left 6-9
Golden Dawn 5-8
Ecogreens 2-4
Popular Orthodox Rally (Laos) 2-4
Drasi 1-3
Democratic Alliance 1-3
The 1st place party gets a 50 seat bonus (out of 300 total seats) and the parties split the remaining seats by the percent of the vote. So New Democracy will probably have around 110 to 120 seats (if I understand correctly), and they need a coalition partner to form a majority (probably Pasok). It is a mess.