by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2012 07:45:00 AM

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Historically Low Business Confidence Begins to Edge Up, Ever so Slightly

The Small-Business Optimism Index gained 0.4 points in February to 94.3 marking the sixth consecutive month of gains. While still historically low, the latest increase is a sign that the recovery is likely to continue, albeit at a glacial pace. The Index is lower than that of February 2011 but is the second highest reading since December 2007, the beginning of the recession.
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While the fog over Main Street appears to be lifting to some degree, confidence in the economy remains fragile. Twenty-two (22) percent of small-business owners report “poor sales” as their top business problem, unchanged from January. February’s report suggests cautious optimism ...

Note: Small businesses have a larger percentage of real estate and retail related companies than the overall economy.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 94.3 in February from 93.9 in January. This is the sixth increase in a row after for the index, and the index is now at second highest level since December 2007 (the index was slightly higher - at 94.5 - in February 2011).

This index is still low - probably due to a combination of sluggish growth, and the high concentration of real estate related companies in the index.