by Calculated Risk on 2/02/2012 06:31:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

Of the nine large publicly traded home builders whose fiscal quarters end on the same day as calendar quarters, eight have published earnings and operating stats. I don’t comment on earnings, put below are some selected stats on orders, settlements, and order backlogs.

Pulte, of course, noted that in the quarter ended December 31, 2010 there was a “one-time pickup” of about 200 net orders “associated with a change in the Company’s order recognition process,” and that as of result a “like-to-like” comparison of the latest quarter vs. the comparable year-ago quarter would show a YOY gain of “about” 8%. Adjusting the totals for all eight builders for the “Pulte shift,” the YOY gain in net orders for the above group would be 13.3% (and the YOY decline for the previous year would be 16.7%). For these eight companies combined, the backlog of orders at the end of last year was up 18.1% from the end of 2010, though it was little changed from the end of 2009.

	Settlements			Net Orders			Backlog
	End 2011	End 2010	End 2009	End 2011	End 2010	End 2009	End 2011	End 2010	End 2009
D.R. Horton	4,118	3,637	5,529	3,794	3,363	4,037	4,530	3,854	4,136
PulteGroup	4,303	4,405	6,200	3,084	3,044	3,748	3,924	3,984	5,931
NVR	2,391	2,639	2,550	2,158	1,765	2,000	3,676	2,916	3,531
The Ryland Group	1,040	909	1,666	915	775	969	1,514	1,187	1,732
Meritage Homes	894	837	1,202	749	713	621	915	778	1,095
Beazer Homes	882	549	961	724	553	728	1,309	800
MDC Holdings	950	865	1,109	523	519	637	1,043	842	826
M/I Homes	667	650	858	505	460	448	676	532	650
Total	15,245	14,491	20,075	12,452	11,192	13,188	17,587	14,893	17,901
YoY % Change	5.2%	-27.8%		11.3%	-15.1%		18.1%	-16.8%

MDC Holdings, by the way, reported that January 2012 net sales were up “about 30%” from January 2011 sales.

Census new SF home sales data showed a YOY increase in sales for the fourth quarter of 2011 (NSA, of course), of just 3.0%, while the YOY % decline for Q4/10 was 20.5%. Unfortunately, the Census new SF sales data are not directly comparable to reports from home builders, partly because of the treatment of sales cancellations, and partly because the timing of a “sale” can differ slightly. As such, it’s difficult to ascertain the degree to which “large” builder sales gains have exceeded Census’ gains reflects market share gains, different reporting, or “bad” Census data!

Net, though, my gut is that the large builders were seeing better net orders last quarter than Census new home sales data might have suggested.